THE MMA PREDICTOR
MODEL DEVELOPMENT
Join Free
MENU
INDEPENDENT PRE-FIGHT PROBABILITIES

WE DON'T PICK WINNERS.WE PRICE OUTCOMES.

Every supported UFC bout becomes a set of probabilities that can be compared directly with the market—without using bookmaker odds to teach the models what to think.

View pricing ↓Explore the underlying data
EXAMPLE OUTPUTLIGHTWEIGHT · 3 ROUNDS
FIGHTER 0164%WIN PROBABILITY
VS
FIGHTER 0236%WIN PROBABILITY
GOES THE DISTANCE42% YES58% NO
F1 WIN PATHS26% KO/TKO15% SUB23% DEC
MODEL SIGNALPRE-FIGHT ONLY
WHAT WE PRICE

ONE FIGHT.
THREE MARKETS.
NO NARRATIVES.

01

Moneyline

Independent win probabilities for both fighters, formed before bookmaker prices enter the analysis.

02

Goes the Distance

A dedicated model for whether the fight reaches the final bell—not a side effect of the winner model.

03

Method of Victory

Decision, knockout and submission probabilities for each fighter across every supported bout.

HOW IT IS JUDGED

THE SCOREBOARD,
NOT THE SALES PITCH.

Performance is measured on unseen historical fights with fixed edge thresholds. Calibration is tracked using Brier score, ECE and log loss, including separate Light, Middle, Heavy and Women buckets. These are historical test-set results, not forecasts.

METHOD OF VICTORY · TEST SET16.55%ROI AT ≥3% MODEL EDGE

1,487 qualifying bets

GOES THE DISTANCE · TEST SET10.99%ROI AT ≥4% MODEL EDGE

3,826 qualifying bets

BOOKMAKER ODDS USED AS FEATURES0THE MODEL FORMS ITS OWN PRICE

Historical performance does not guarantee future returns.

CHOOSE YOUR ACCESS

CHOOSE HOW DEEP
YOU WANT TO GO.

Free access is available now. Core and Pro use secure live Stripe Checkout.