HOW THE PRICES ARE JUDGED.
This page explains how reference prices become fair market probabilities, how connected-bookmaker prices are compared and where the limits sit.
PRE-FIGHT MARKETS ONLY
The displayed probabilities and value estimates use prices available before the fight. Results and in-fight information are never used to rewrite a pre-fight view after the event.
THREE DISTINCT MARKETS
- Moneyline: the probability of each fighter winning.
- Goes the Distance: whether the scheduled final bell is reached.
- Method of Victory: knockout, submission and decision paths for each fighter.
Each market is priced from its own available reference market. A Moneyline probability is not relabelled as a finish probability, and unavailable reference markets do not receive invented estimates.
FAIR PRICE & ESTIMATED VALUE
Complete current sharp reference markets are each de-vigged independently by removing their market margin and normalising the mutually exclusive outcomes. The resulting probability distributions are combined into our production fair line; when only one complete current source is available, that source supplies the market rather than blending incomplete data. Connected-bookmaker decimal odds are then compared with that fair line. Estimated value is the fair probability multiplied by the available decimal price, minus one. It is shown only when the required inputs are available.
REFERENCE WEIGHTS & SOURCE CHECKS
When both complete usable reference markets are available, the probability blend is 60% Pinnacle and 40% BetOnline. Each source is de-vigged before blending: divide each inverse decimal price by the total inverse prices for that source. We blend probabilities, not the displayed odds.
One complete usable source supplies 100%; no usable source means no published fair estimate. Sources must match the event, fight and market and pass freshness checks. These are market-derived estimates, rather than an independent model of fighter skill. The weighting is our stated policy, not a claim that the weights are proven optimal.
Method of Victory covers six winning paths: KO/TKO, submission and decision for each fighter. Draw and no contest are not separate outcomes in that distribution. Bookmaker settlement rules still apply.
TRY THE CALCULATION
At the example prices below, the two independently de-vigged probabilities for Fighter A are 53.8462% and 55.1282%. Their 60/40 blend is 54.3590%, giving fair decimal odds of 1.8396. At an offered price of 2.00, estimated value is +8.72%.
Hypothetical Moneyline prices, unrelated to a real fight. Change the decimal prices to inspect the calculation.
| Step | Result |
|---|---|
| Pinnacle implied total | 103.17% |
| Pinnacle after de-vig | 53.85% |
| BetOnline implied total | 103.65% |
| BetOnline after de-vig | 55.13% |
| Blended probability | 54.36% |
| Fair decimal price (1 ÷ probability) | 1.8396 |
| Estimated value (probability × offered price − 1) | +8.72% |
Fighter B receives 45.64%. Calculations use full precision; displayed figures are rounded.
This explains a price comparison. A positive estimate depends on the probability and settlement assumptions being correct; it does not promise profit. The live service also checks identity, market completeness and freshness.
LIMITATIONS
Odds can move, markets can be suspended or mapped incorrectly, reference markets may be unavailable and a de-vigged market estimate can still be wrong. Positive estimated value describes a price comparison, not a promise that a bet will win or make a profit.
Review the data and correction standardsand the safer-gambling guidancebefore using any output.