HOW THE PRICES ARE JUDGED.
This page explains how reference prices become fair market probabilities, how connected-bookmaker prices are compared and where the limits sit.
PRE-FIGHT MARKETS ONLY
The displayed probabilities and value estimates use prices available before the fight. Results and in-fight information are never used to rewrite a pre-fight view after the event.
THREE DISTINCT MARKETS
- Moneyline: the probability of each fighter winning.
- Goes the Distance: whether the scheduled final bell is reached.
- Method of Victory: knockout, submission and decision paths for each fighter.
Each market is priced from its own available reference market. A Moneyline probability is not relabelled as a finish probability, and unavailable reference markets do not receive invented estimates.
FAIR PRICE & ESTIMATED VALUE
Complete current sharp reference markets are each de-vigged independently by removing their market margin and normalising the mutually exclusive outcomes. The resulting probability distributions are combined into our production fair line; when only one complete current source is available, that source supplies the market rather than blending incomplete data. Connected-bookmaker decimal odds are then compared with that fair line. Estimated value is the fair probability multiplied by the available decimal price, minus one. It is shown only when the required inputs are available.
LIMITATIONS
Odds can move, markets can be suspended or mapped incorrectly, reference markets may be unavailable and a de-vigged market estimate can still be wrong. Positive estimated value describes a price comparison, not a promise that a bet will win or make a profit.
Review the data and correction standardsand the safer-gambling guidancebefore using any output.